By Taibat Ummi Yakubu

 After months of uncertainty over rainfall, insecurity and the rising cost of farm inputs, millet farmers across Katsina State are entering the 2026 harvest season with renewed optimism, with early yields pointing to a potentially better harvest than last year.

For thousands of smallholder farmers, the performance of this year’s millet crop goes beyond the farm gate. Millet remains a major staple in Katsina and an important source of household income, meaning a stronger harvest could help ease pressure on food supplies, improve farmers’ earnings and strengthen food security across the state.

Harvesting has already commenced in some farming communities, and early reports from the fields have offered farmers reasons to smile.

In Kankia, a farmer, Malam Aminu Ado, said although the wet season came with its share of difficulties, the results from farms already harvested had raised expectations of a bumper yield.

“This year’s wet season has been full of intrigues, but from what farmers have been gaining from the millet harvest, it is evident that a bumper harvest is imminent,” Ado said.

He attributed part of the improvement to interventions by the Katsina State and Federal Governments, particularly the availability of fertiliser and other agricultural inputs.

The optimism, however, did not come easily.

In Dandume, another farmer, Malam Kamal Bature, said irregular rainfall initially left many farmers worried about the possibility of dry spells affecting their crops.

“This year, the rainfall has not been uniform across the state. We were afraid that some parts of Katsina might be vulnerable to dry spells, while insecurity in some places continued to affect farming activities in several frontline communities,” he said.

But as farmers began harvesting, Bature said their fears started giving way to hope.

“However, as the harvest began, we became hopeful that it is going to be a bumper one,” he added.

Agricultural economist Ismail Shehu Charanchi described the 2026 season as a year that began with mixed expectations.

According to him, farmers had to contend with the possibility of favourable yields on one hand and the risks posed by unpredictable weather and insecurity on the other.

He said the situation had become more encouraging as farmers reported better yields, which he linked partly to improved access to fertiliser and other inputs.

“This season, farmers who have harvested their millet have reported bumper yields, citing improved access to fertiliser and other agricultural inputs. The state government’s agricultural mechanisation initiative has also helped a lot of farmers,” Charanchi said.

He explained that fertiliser remained one of the most critical factors influencing productivity among smallholder farmers, particularly as the high cost of inputs in recent years had forced some farmers to reduce the size of their farms or use less fertiliser than recommended.

Such limitations, he noted, could reduce yields even when rainfall conditions were favourable.

Charanchi said the 2026 season benefited from government interventions, including the procurement of thousands of tonnes of fertiliser and a decentralised distribution arrangement intended to make the commodity more accessible to farmers across the state’s 34 local government areas.

He added that Federal Government agricultural input programmes, alongside an intervention by the Bank of Agriculture targeting thousands of hectares through farmer cooperatives, had also supported production during the season.

“For millet farmers, these interventions mean healthier crops, better grain yields and, more importantly, easier access to inputs, which encouraged many farmers to cultivate larger areas,” he said.

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Beyond fertiliser and rainfall, however, farmers say another factor could determine how much grain eventually reaches Katsina’s markets: access to farmland.

The state chairman of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Alhaji Yau Umar Gwajo-Gwajo, said improved security in some parts of Katsina had enabled farmers to return to fields they had previously abandoned.

For years, insecurity had forced farmers in some communities to either stop farming altogether or restrict cultivation to smaller plots located close to their homes.

Gwajo-Gwajo said the improvement in security had begun changing that situation.

“Fortunately, farmers’ representatives have recently reported improved access to some farmlands in previously troubled areas, including parts of Batsari, Dan Musa and Faskari, as the security situation improved in the state.

“The development offers hope that more land was cultivated during the 2026 season. Reports reaching the association indicate a far higher and better harvest than last year,” he said.

The return to larger farms, he added, could significantly increase overall agricultural output, particularly among farmers who had previously been forced to cultivate only small plots around their communities.

For Mr Zack Joseph of Agrisolution, geography and crop choice are also important in understanding the expected harvest.

He identified Katsina’s northern agricultural belt, including communities around Daura, Mai’Adua, Zango, Baure, Mashi, Mani and parts of Kaita, as an important millet-producing area.

Millet has traditionally remained popular in the semi-arid communities because of its relative ability to withstand dry conditions compared with some other crops.

Joseph said reports from farming communities suggested encouraging yields despite earlier climate projections that raised concerns about a shorter growing season and periods of dry weather in parts of northern Katsina.

Farmers, he said, responded by planting early and adopting early-maturing millet varieties following expert recommendations.

Central and southern parts of the state, including Malumfashi, Funtua, Kafur, Danja, Dandume and Bakori, also possess substantial agricultural potential, he said, although farmers in those areas tend to cultivate a broader mix of crops.

Still, agricultural experts and farmers are cautious about declaring victory just yet.

With harvesting continuing at different times across the state, the final picture of the 2026 millet season is yet to emerge. While early results are encouraging, the benefits are unlikely to be uniform across all farming communities.

Rainfall uncertainty remains a concern in northern Katsina, particularly where dry spells could affect late-season crops. Insecurity also continues to limit agricultural activities in some communities despite reported improvements in access to farmland.

For now, however, the mood among many farmers is one of cautious optimism.

If the current trend continues, the 2026 millet harvest could deliver more than fuller granaries. It could mean better incomes for farming households, greater availability of a major staple food and some relief for consumers facing persistent food-price pressures.

After the difficulties of the 2025 season, Katsina’s farmers are now watching their fields closely — hopeful that this year’s harvest will finally give them something to celebrate.