The high cost of petrol in Nigeria is being driven by more than domestic market conditions, with billionaire businessman Aliko Dangote pointing to the continued smuggling of locally produced fuel to neighbouring countries as one of the factors keeping pressure on the domestic market.

Dangote, President of Dangote Industries Limited, raised the issue during an interview on Arise TV on Tuesday while discussing petrol prices, availability and the possible effects of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East on Nigeria’s petroleum supply.

According to him, Nigerians need to look beyond the price they pay at home and compare it with what consumers in neighbouring countries pay for the same product.

“Expensive is relative,” Dangote said, arguing that the significant price difference between Nigeria and its neighbours creates an attractive opportunity for those involved in the illegal movement of petrol across the borders.

He said petrol prices in some neighbouring countries are between 30 and 50 per cent higher than in Nigeria. That gap, he explained, can make it more profitable for traders to move petrol out of Nigeria and sell it across the border rather than keep it within the domestic market.

“I don’t know if you know that there’s still a lot of smuggling of the same petrol we are producing to our neighbouring countries,” he said.

Dangote specifically mentioned Niger, where he claimed petrol was selling for between 20 and 25 per cent more than in Nigeria.

Using a Nigerian pump price of N1,350 as an illustration, he said the difference could provide traders with a substantial and almost immediate return on their investment.

“So, what business are you going to do that will make you have an instant 25 per cent return?” he asked.

He further described how petrol supposedly destined for the Nigerian market could be diverted towards border communities and sold to buyers in neighbouring countries.

According to Dangote, a truck could claim to be transporting fuel to Sokoto but instead head towards Ilela, a border town, where the product could be sold at a higher price.

The businessman said such activity creates a situation in which petrol produced for Nigerians can leave the country because of the more lucrative prices available across the border.

The issue, however, goes beyond the price of petrol, as Dangote warned that the unfolding crisis in the Middle East could expose Nigeria to another challenge altogether — availability.

He said developments in the region could affect global energy markets and potentially create difficulties around the supply of petroleum products.

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“And the problem now, going forward, I must also warn that this crisis in the Middle East is not even about price; it’s about availability,” Dangote said.

Despite the warning, he sought to reassure Nigerians that the Dangote refinery would continue supplying the domestic market and would not allow its operations to contribute to shortages or long queues at filling stations.

“We will deliver to Nigeria. Nigerians don’t need to worry. There will not be any shortage from our own part,” he said.

Dangote added that the refinery would continue working to meet demand regardless of the challenges confronting the international petroleum market.

“There won’t be any shortage. There will not be any queues. We will make sure that we keep satisfying the market, despite all odds,” he added.

His comments came as investors turned their attention to the Nigerian Exchange following the commencement of the initial public offering of Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals.

The N2.15 trillion offer was formally launched on Monday during the opening gong ceremony at the NGX trading floor in Marina, Lagos, with Dangote himself performing the symbolic opening.

The offering represents the first time a petroleum refinery has been presented to investors on the Nigerian stock market in the Exchange’s 66-year history.

Under the offer, 4.1 billion ordinary shares are being offered at N525 per share, with investors able to subscribe for a minimum of 10 shares valued at N5,250.

The offer is open to retail and institutional investors as well as eligible African investors and is scheduled to close on October 13, 2026.

As the Dangote refinery expands its role in supplying locally refined petroleum products, the continuing movement of petrol across Nigeria’s borders remains a challenge for the domestic market.

For Dangote, the combination of cross-border price disparities and uncertainty in global energy markets means that the question confronting Nigerians may soon extend beyond how much petrol costs to whether enough of it will remain available at home.