BY MANSIR LAWAL KAWARE, KATSINA STATE – 08036355591
7/6/2026
Presidential hopefuls that have been eyeing the Aso Rock Villa in Abuja are now on their marks. They are getting set for the race. The 400 meters lane is now reduced to 100 meters as they have already covered 300 meters out of the total distance. One participant that attracts attention of the spectators is Atiku Abubakar, the Wazirin Adamawa .
The reason being that, while President Bola Tinubu took shot of the race once and got on the chair, Atiku Abubakar is now running for the sixth time on different platforms. The second reason is that, Atiku Abubakar himself has declared that this is his last outing for the Presidential contest after which win or lose he will stop at that. We don’t know whether this means if he wins, he takes over running the affairs of the country and if he loses, he would not mind going to court.
Be what, it may, the incumbent President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is not leaving any stone unturned in ensuring that he gets the second term of four years in office come the year 2027.
One surprising statement is what comes from Niger State Governor Umar Bago which allegedly says in Hausa Language that “Arewa Kadai ke ba su son Tinubu, kuma sai ya ci zabe, sai dai su bar Kasar” meaning only the North is against Tinubu’s re-election, and he is going to win, if they wish they can leave the country.
However, considering the fact that Northern Political Arrow Heads such as Rt. Hon. Aminu Bello Masari from Katsina State, Dr. Umar Ganduje from Kano, Sani Yariman Bakura from Zamfara, Aliyu Magatakardar Wammako in Sokoto, Adamu Aliero of Kebbi, Senator Ahmed Lawan in Yobe, Senator Ali Modu Sherrif of Borno, not to talk of the Vice President Kashim Shetima, we have Danjuma Goje in Gombe, NSA Nuhu Ribadu in Adamawa, Abdullahi Adamu of Nasarawa , Yahaya Bello from Kogi, SGS George Akume in Benue, the APC National Chairman Professor Nantawe in Plateau, in Kwara State although Bukola Saraki did not answer his name in the roll call, Ilorin Government House is in control of APC. With all these people, coupled with 18 out of the nineteen Northern State Governors, their State Assembly Members, Local Government Chairmen and Councilors, Commissioners and Chief Executives of the Parastatals, APC Senators and Reps from the North, Ministers and Federal Parastatals of Northern extraction all working for the APC that has Tinubu as its Presidential candidate what else does Bago asks for from the north for Tinubu.
If he has problem from his state he should find a way or solving it, but it is an unguided statement to generalize the north under such act. If we are to go by analysis of his statement, it means the north has to avoid giving its votes to him, because in future tence, it means it would not expect anything good in return after he wins the 2027 election, as he already has an implantated impression in his heart that the north is against him.
The other Presidential Candidates are Atiku Abubakar of ADC, Peter Obi of NDC and Goodluck Jonathan of PDP if the controversy surrounding the party allows that. Other Presidential Candidates though relevant in their own rights, but are more like supporting staff in a Professional organization they are important, but could hardly make any difference
The chances of Peter Obi are very slim. Obi and his supporters are being carried away by his 2023 performance in the Presidential election; little have they known that, those votes were only a reciprocal of the APC Muslim – Muslim ticket of 2023. Nigerian Christians have now realized that Bola Tinubu does not give attention to religion. To some extent the Yoruba Muslims were even complaining that he gave more appointments to Yoruba Christians than Muslims. Under that circumstance Peter Obi has lost that constituency. They may deny this submission, but the 2027 election result would prove it. The trio of Peter Obi, Kwankwaso and Obasanjo cannot give NDC a win. With Bola Tinubu as an incumbent President and a candidate in the 2027 election Peter Obi cannot defeat Tinubu in Lagos as he did in 2023. Similarly, Obasanjo cannot weigh over Tinubu in the South West in favour of Peter Obi. Kwankwaso can also do very little for Peter Obi because his political influence is limited to Kano State as if he could not even extended to Jigawa State. This time around he may not have a smooth sail in Kano because there are other forces against him. A former APC National Chairman and also former Governor of Kano State Dr. Umar Ganduje, another former Kano State Governor Malam Ibrahim Shekarau, Deputy Senate President Jibrin Barau, also on the line a notable politician A. A. Zauro and the incumbent Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf (Abba Gida – Gida) are all with the APC, Kwankwaso cannot easily ride over than to get a win for Peter Obi, even though he is the presidential running mate of the NDC. More so, don’t forget that in 2003 Kwankwaso as an incumbent Governor lost the election to Malam Ibrahim Shekarau who took over Kano Government House from him and serve as a two term governor of the state.
At best, Obasanjo, Peter obi and kwankwaso might have succeeded in stagnating Atiku Abubakar because members of the NDC were extracted out of ADC which can weakened its possible performance.
On his part, Atiku Abubakar is known for his doggedness in fighting for a course he believes in. His political experience is enough to throw his opponents 0ff balance and instill fear in minds of those who are not his followers. The mere mention of his name sent tongues wagging because it is now synanymous with Nigerian Politics. People may not want to believe it, but Atiku is the man to beat during the Presidential election of 2027. For those of us staying by the side, in such contest, we find it difficult to believe the kind of strong heart Atiku is having. With the NDC pulling out of ADC and political control of APC at all levels in over 30 states, Atiku is still looking hopeful of winning the election. The ADC has no serving Governor, except a handful of some Senators and Reps members yet he is still forging ahead. The strong ADC members are battling with one EFCC or ICPC charges or the other making any contribution yet Atiku is still matching with strong steps.
Although late President Buhari had similar political sojourn, but his 2015 outing had a difference, as many strong. Political actors happened to visibly join forces with him.
However, as an experienced politician we cannot dismiss him, as he might have known what we do not know, but Atiku really needs some extra ordinary magic votes and hard prayers for him to be able to pull Tinubu out of Aso Rock Villa.
Mansir Lawal Kaware,
Writes in from Katsina.
